Kevin Cash’s Critical World Series Decision That Went “Wrong” Was Actually Right

I’m willing to bet there are a number of things most of you would rather do than stare at Microsoft Excel spreadsheets on a daily basis. But what if the data contained in those rows and columns could give you “World Championship” status—or at the very least an edge over the competition? Imagine having a well-documented tally of previous performance results for all employees or co-workers and being able to use that information to predict sales slumps, prevent snags in production, or progress to the highest stage in your industry.

In Major League Baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays have used those proven metrics to consistently outperform others, even while playing on a stingy budget. This year, those data points allowed them to win their division and nearly capture a World Series title.

Earlier this week the Los Angeles Dodgers won their first World Series trophy since 1988, defeating the Rays in six games. Much of the national conversation in the days since the series ended has been about a sixth-inning decision made by Rays’ manager Kevin Cash to remove his starting pitcher from the game in favor of a fresh arm from the bullpen.

To add a little context, Cash has played all levels of baseball from the 1989 Little League World Series, to collegiate ball at Florida State University, to eight MLB seasons playing on six different teams. He just finished his fifth year as manager of the Rays and has true baseball instincts—but he’s also a numbers guy working in a “numbers franchise,” one that places a high value on the metrics first made famous by the movie “Money Ball.” This year, Cash led the Rays to the World Series stage by driving a consistent strategy that valued data and stats—including one that led to his Game Six decision to remove Blake Snell from the game, despite a 1-0 lead in the sixth inning.

Snell had been dealing all game long. He kept the talented opposing hitters off-balance and limited their ability to get on base. In fact, the top three hitters in the Dodgers’ batting order, Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, and Justin Turner, each struck-out twice in their first two at-bats. Cash knew that stat; but he also knew this one—Snell had gone all season, including the playoffs, without making it through the sixth inning of any game. Cash was also aware of a metric called Times Through the Order Penalty (TTOP) where numbers show a considerable decline in effectiveness the more times a pitcher faces the same batters. Whether baseball minds follow metrics or instincts, it’s a widely accepted philosophy that the third time through the batting order is statistically when the wheels fall off for the pitcher. Despite having nine strikeouts in five innings, Snell was pulled from the game as the top and most explosive part of the batting order approached the plate for a third attempt against him. The rest became Dodgers’ history as LA took the lead that inning, scoring two runs against the relief pitcher who replaced Snell.

Sure, the heavily “hind-sighted” perspective now is that Cash should have “trusted his gut more than the machines,” and the baseball purists are using it as a rallying cry to CONTROL+ALT+DELETE every sabermetrics-related spreadsheet. But I’d argue the tougher thing to do as a leader is to stick to one’s conventional wisdom despite the world clamoring for more impulsive decisions.

I guarantee you that Cash’s gut feeling said to leave Snell on the mound because he had performed so well through the first five innings, but Cash didn’t go with the “eye metrics.” He didn’t scrap the model that had statistically worked time and time again, just for a hope and a prayer that his starting pitcher would miraculously continue his successful ways.

In Game Two of this same World Series matchup, Snell pitched into the fifth inning, striking out nine batters without surrendering a single hit… then the wheels fell off as Snell gave up a 2-run home run. He was then pulled with two runners on base and his relief pitcher, Nick Anderson, recorded a critical strikeout to end the inning. The easier thing to do as a leader is to make an impulsive decision based on feelings for a particular player and then put the result squarely on that player not living up to the moment. The harder thing to do as a leader is to follow the “machine” over instinct, and own up to it when the result strays away from the trend.

The irony is that a manager gets criticized for either decision—when they leave a pitcher in one batter too many, or one batter too few. It didn’t turn out the way the Tampa fan base would’ve hoped, but Cash made the choice that he’d shown consistently throughout the season, was the better one.

In moments when your back is against the wall, side with your strengths and do the things that have been the keys to unlock your success thus far. The grand stage isn’t the ideal time to try something new. Might it fail you? Certainly. But it’s a leadership lesson I learned from the late great Utah Jazz head coach Jerry Sloan. While talking with him several years ago about success habits in critical situations, he noted the importance of sticking with what primed you for the spotlight. He shared with me that the end of the game wasn’t the time to suddenly stray away from his patented Pick and Roll strategy with Hall of Famers Karl Malone and John Stockton. If it didn’t work and they missed the shot, they could live with knowing they still made the right decision. At no point did his coaching staff suggest running the offense through Greg Ostertag because he’d made all three of his shots earlier in the game.

The Rays made it to the World Series by trusting the metrics and believing in the players. After the loss, Cash doubled down on the strategy, telling reporters, “I guess I regret it because it didn’t work out. The thought process was right… If we had to do it over again, I would have the utmost confidence in Nick Anderson to get through that inning.”

There’s something to be said for the difficulty in making that choice. Had his decision worked like it had done all season long, I’m guessing there would be no criticism. But then again, that’s just my gut feeling.